An edition of The impact of uncertainty shocks (2007)

The impact of uncertainty shocks

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The impact of uncertainty shocks
Nicholas Dagen Bloom
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 19, 2020 | History
An edition of The impact of uncertainty shocks (2007)

The impact of uncertainty shocks

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"Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock and the 9/11 terrorist attack. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment. This occurs because higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause their investment and hiring. Productivity growth also falls because this pause in activity freezes reallocation across units. In the medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment and productivity. Thus, second moment shocks generate short sharp recessions and recoveries. This simulated impact of an uncertainty shock is compared to VAR estimations on actual data, showing a good match in both magnitude and timing. The paper also jointly estimates labor and capital convex and non-convex adjustment costs. Ignoring capital adjustment costs is shown to lead to substantial bias while ignoring labor adjustment costs does not"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Cover of: The impact of uncertainty shocks
The impact of uncertainty shocks
2007, National Bureau of Economic Research
electronic resource / in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 9/20/2007.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 13385, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 13385.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
[electronic resource] /

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL31800472M
LCCN
2007616562

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