Time-varying consumption correlation and the dynamics of the equity premium

evidence from the G-7 Countries

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Time-varying consumption correlation and the ...
Asani Sarkar
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December 13, 2020 | History

Time-varying consumption correlation and the dynamics of the equity premium

evidence from the G-7 Countries

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"We examine the implications of time variation in the correlation between the equity premium and nondurable consumption growth for equity return dynamics in G-7 countries. Using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) model, we find that the correlation increases with recession indicators such as above-average unemployment growth and with proxies for stock market wealth. The combined effect is that the correlation increases during a recession. We find that the effect of a countercyclical correlation is that the equity premium, Sharpe ratio, and risk aversion are also generally countercyclical. These findings survive several robustness checks such as allowing the mean return to depend on its conditional variance and controlling for lower consumption volatility during the post-1990 period. The evidence is stronger for countries that have larger stock market capitalization relative to GDP. Our results show the importance of combining financial and macroeconomic indicators for explaining time variation in the consumption correlation and the equity premium"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 2/15/2005.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
[New York, N.Y.]
Series
Staff reports ;, no. 181, Staff reports (Federal Reserve Bank of New York : Online) ;, no. 181.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL3476177M
LCCN
2005615635

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Download catalog record: RDF / JSON
December 13, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
December 5, 2010 Edited by Open Library Bot Added subjects from MARC records.
December 10, 2009 Created by WorkBot add works page